If you accept the trends at Intrade, the following are all short-priced favourties for Academy Awards:
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Actor in a Leading Role: Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Actress in a Leading Role: Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Actor in a Supporting Role: Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Actress in a Supporting Role: Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Directing: Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
The Reader has just opened in Melbourne so haven't had a chance to see it yet. All the others seem worthy winners except Cruz. Would have liked Brad Pitt to have been nominated against Ledger for Burn After Reading for some real competition.
Other nominees that I fancy are, though haven't seen all the films:
Foreign Language Film: Waltz With Bashir
Documentary Feature: Man On Wire
The awards ceremony is on 22 February (23 February in Australia).